First-week sales odds from Kalshi & Polymarket, powered by Hits Daily Double data.
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20,000+ copies | 93% | 93% | 11,444 |
| 25,000+ copies | 86% | 86% | 532 |
| 30,000+ copies | 53% | 53% | 58,472 |
| 40,000+ copies | 39% | 39% | 41,019 |
| 50,000+ copies | 38% | 38% | 84,251 |
| 60,000+ copies | 20% | 20% | 43,318 |
| 70,000+ copies | 20% | 20% | 34,292 |
| 80,000+ copies | 10% | 10% | 49,202 |
| 90,000+ copies | 8% | 8% | 44,738 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30,000+ copies | 81% | 81% | 2,424 |
| 35,000+ copies | 65% | 65% | 2,126 |
| 40,000+ copies | 47% | 47% | 9,753 |
| 45,000+ copies | 29% | 29% | 5,452 |
| 50,000+ copies | 13% | 13% | 5,987 |
| 55,000+ copies | 5% | 5% | 5,833 |
| 65,000+ copies | 15% | 15% | 4,878 |
| 75,000+ copies | 8% | 8% | 3,399 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100,000+ copies | 97% | 97% | 236 |
| 125,000+ copies | 75% | 75% | 98 |
| 150,000+ copies | 56% | 56% | 4,952 |
| 175,000+ copies | 29% | 29% | 4,794 |
| 200,000+ copies | 23% | 23% | 7,603 |
| 225,000+ copies | 7% | 7% | 4,465 |
| 250,000+ copies | 4% | 4% | 571 |
| 275,000+ copies | 4% | 4% | 385 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15,000+ copies | 93% | 93% | 5,357 |
| 20,000+ copies | 18% | 18% | 1,531 |
| 25,000+ copies | 6% | 6% | 1,809 |
| 30,000+ copies | 12% | 12% | 544 |
| 35,000+ copies | 8% | 8% | 25 |
| 40,000+ copies | 9% | 9% | 40 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5,000+ copies | 95% | 95% | 0 |
| 10,000+ copies | 94% | 94% | 3,364 |
| 15,000+ copies | 48% | 48% | 130 |
| 20,000+ copies | 16% | 16% | 971 |
| 25,000+ copies | 16% | 16% | 350 |
| 30,000+ copies | 8% | 8% | 1,175 |
| 35,000+ copies | 9% | 9% | 3,014 |
| 40,000+ copies | 3% | 3% | 1,968 |
| 45,000+ copies | 5% | 5% | 110 |
| 50,000+ copies | 3% | 3% | 20 |
| 55,000+ copies | 5% | 5% | 20 |
| 60,000+ copies | 10% | 10% | 0 |
| 65,000+ copies | 5% | 5% | 0 |
| 70,000+ copies | 9% | 9% | 108 |
| 75,000+ copies | 7% | 7% | 108 |
| 80,000+ copies | 7% | 7% | 130 |
| 85,000+ copies | 6% | 6% | 67 |
| 90,000+ copies | 7% | 7% | 114 |
| 95,000+ copies | 6% | 6% | 88 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45,000+ copies | 97% | 97% | 330 |
| 55,000+ copies | 94% | 94% | 134 |
| 60,000+ copies | 71% | 71% | 48 |
| 65,000+ copies | 23% | 23% | 30 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000+ copies | 89% | 89% | 1,766 |
| 15,000+ copies | 20% | 20% | 908 |
| 20,000+ copies | 11% | 11% | 1,069 |
| 25,000+ copies | 10% | 10% | 1,091 |
| Sales Threshold | Odds | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000+ copies | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| 15,000+ copies | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| 20,000+ copies | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| 25,000+ copies | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| 30,000+ copies | 10% | 10% | 5,856 |
| 60,000+ copies | 7% | 7% | 1,636 |
| 90,000+ copies | 4% | 4% | 348 |
| 120,000+ copies | 5% | 5% | 5 |
| 150,000+ copies | 5% | 5% | 10 |